Political Risk Analysis: Domestic Factors, International Relations and Economic Impact Assessment
Period: 17-21 July 2017
The recent developments in Turkey, the social unrest in Venezuela and the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine underline the continued importance of political risk analysis for companies. This course teaches you the skills necessary to study political risks, and explore how these risks can affect the economic growth potential of Emerging Markets.
How can political risk be defined? What indicators can we use to assess political risk? And how can geo-economics and natural resources affect political risk? To answer these questions, you do two individual assignments in which you analyse data from Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa for one political risk indicator. In the subsequent group assignment, you write the political risk section of a country risk report about one of these countries. The other group assignment concerns the development of geo-economic scenarios that involve the aforementioned nation-states. You present all your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments. The companion course is Country Risk Analysis 2: Macro-Economic Risk Indicators, Causal Chain Tool and Recession Scenarios for China.
▪ Designing an analytical framework to study the political risks in Emerging Markets, and their impact on economic growth potential
▪ Understanding the role of geo-economics and natural resources in political risk
▪ Structuring and writing a country risk report in line with the expectations of your target audience
▪ Strong motivation and good command of English are essential to get a pass for the course.
▪ Basic knowledge of economic ideas and/or trends is recommended.
▪ Aimed at Bachelor/ Master/ PhD students in Economics/ Business/ Political Sciences/ International Relations/ Geography/ History. Professionals with various backgrounds benefitted as well from taking previous editions of the course. If in doubt, please contact Leonhardt for personal course selection advice.
▪ Delbelque, É and Harbulot, C. (2012) La Guerre Économique. Presses Universitaires de France.
▪ McKellar, R. (2010) A Short Guide to Political Risk. Gower.
▪ Nusseibeh, S. (2012) Political Risk Returns to the Financial Markets. BBC News. Freely available here.
▪ Van Efferink, L., Kool, C. and Van Veen, T. (2003) Country Risk Analysis. NIBE-SVV. Freely available as E-Book on the GeoMeans website
You are further recommended to read some of these blog posts by Leonhardt.
Please note that it is not required to do some reading before the course. If you like to read something, select a book that is closest to your research interests or ask Leonhardt for personal reading advice. For more suggested reading materials, check the following reading lists.
▪ Lectures ▪ Presentations ▪ Work in subgroups
▪ Attendance ▪ Participation ▪ Presentation
▪ Analytical Skills ▪ Political Risk Concepts ▪ Political Risk Indicators ▪ Geo-Economics ▪ Natural Resources ▪ Country Risk Reports
Accommodation: please visit Maastricht Housing website
Funding: not available
Related GeoMeans Summer School Courses:
▪ Country Risk Analysis 2: Macro-Economic Risk Indicators, Causal Chain Tool and Recession Scenarios for China
▪ Geopolitical Conflict Analysis 1: Fragmented Identities, Rising Powers and International Security Threats
▪ Geopolitical Conflict Analysis 2: Geographical Factors, Geostrategy and Scenario Planning Tools