Country Risk Analysis: Growth Potential, Economic Policy and External Finances of Emerging Markets
Period: 24-28 July 2017
The current economic recession in Brazil, the unusual budget deficit of Saudi Arabia and the uncertain growth prospects of China underline the continued importance of country risk analysis for companies. This course teaches you the skills necessary to study country risks in Emerging Markets from an economic perspective, with a special focus on China’s future growth path.
What are the most important macro-economic risk indicators? How are they linked to other indicators and country risk? And under which circumstances would China, the world’s long-time growth engine, end up in a recession? To answer these questions, you do two individual assignments in which you analyse data for one macro-economic risk indicator from Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa. Another individual assignment concerns the use of the causal chain tool to visualize how a change in a particular indicator would affect country risk directly and indirectly. In a final group assignment, you develop scenarios in which China’s economic growth rate goes down and eventually becomes negative. You present all your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments. The companion course is Country Risk Analysis 1: Political Risk Indicators, Geo-Economics and Report Writing.
▪ Designing an analytical framework to study the macro-economic risks in Emerging Markets
▪ Comparing the macro-economic risks of different nation-states
▪ Developing worst-case scenarios for China’s economy and reflecting on their impact on other countries and the world economy
▪ Strong motivation and good command of English are essential to get a pass for the course.
▪ Basic knowledge of economic ideas and/or trends is recommended.
▪ Aimed at Bachelor/ Master/ PhD students in Economics/ Business/ Political Sciences/ International Relations/ Geography/ History. Professionals with various backgrounds benefitted as well from taking previous editions of the course. If in doubt, please contact Leonhardt for personal course selection advice.
▪ Iranzo, S. (2008) Delving into Country Risk. Banco de España, Occasional Paper No. 0802. Freely available here.
▪ Knight, J. (2012) The Economic Causes and Consequences of Social Instability in China. Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series. Freely available here.
▪ Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H. (2009) Scenario Planning. The Link between Future and Strategy. Palgrave.
▪ Van Efferink, L., Kool, C. and Van Veen, T. (2003) Country Risk Analysis. NIBE-SVV. Freely available as E-Book on the GeoMeans website
You are further recommended to read some of these blog posts by Leonhardt.
Please note that it is not required to do some reading before the course. If you like to read something, select a book that is closest to your research interests or ask Leonhardt for personal reading advice. For more suggested reading materials, check the following reading lists.
▪ Lectures ▪ Presentations ▪ Work in subgroups
▪ Attendance ▪ Participation ▪ Presentation
▪ Analytical Skills ▪ Country Risk Concepts ▪ Country Risk Research Framework ▪ Macro-Economic Risk Indicators ▪ Causal Chain Tool ▪ Scenario Writing ▪ China’s Economy
Accommodation: please visit Maastricht Housing website
Funding: not available
Related GeoMeans Summer School Courses:
▪ Country Risk Analysis 1: Political Risk Indicators, Geo-Economics and Report Writing
▪ Geopolitical Conflict Analysis 1: Fragmented Identities, Rising Powers and International Security Threats
▪ Geopolitical Conflict Analysis 2: Geographical Factors, Geostrategy and Scenario Planning Tools