The Asian Crisis in 1997-1998, Argentina’s default in 2001 and the recent economic downturns in Brazil, Russia and South Africa underline the relevance of country risk analysis for companies, policymakers and NGOs. This course teaches you the skills to study country risks in Emerging Markets from an economic perspective. What kind of research framework do banks use to assess country risk, and which concepts are pivotal in this regard? What are important economic risk drivers, and what are their critical values? And how can these economic risk drivers affect country risk? To answer these questions, you do an assignment in which you collect open source data required for a thorough economic risk analysis of a particular country. In the next assignment, you write the economic risk section of a country risk report about this country. To prepare for this section, you learn how to use a tool to visualize the direct and indirect effects of a change in economic risk drivers. In the final assignment, you compare the economic risks in your country with those in countries of your team mates. You present all your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments.
Related Summer School courses from Leonhardt are Political Risk Analysis: Domestic Factors, International Relations and Economic Impact Assessment, Geopolitical Scenario Planning: National Security, Geo-Economics and Foreign Policy Strategy and Geopolitical Framing Analysis: National Images, World Views and Global Dividing Lines.
▪ Designing an analytical framework to study the country risks in Emerging Markets;
▪ Comparing the macro-economic risks and the underlying drivers of different countries;
▪ Assessing the impact of changes in other economies and the world economy on one particular country;
▪ Developing your critical thinking skills by productively combining knowledge, assumptions and questions;
▪ Boosting your employability by acquiring valuable skills required for positions in business, government and academia.
Dr. Leonhardt van Efferink (PhD defence in December 2017) first worked as country risk analyst for 12 years. From 2010 until 2017, he did a PhD that straddles the boundary between geopolitics and media studies. Students of his 2017 Summer Schools gave him an average of 9.5/10 for his teaching skills. Former Summer School student Roman from Switzerland recommends Leonhardt because “through his ability to interact with all the people with all their different backgrounds, he managed to meet the needs of each participant in a very unique way. The course turned out to be a highly interactive class combined with the professional inputs from Mr. van Efferink. His enthusiasm and knowledge in the area of Country Risk was contagious and opened completely different perspectives to all of us. Personally, I learned a lot about country risk and the different drivers during the course.”
▪ Strong motivation and good command of English are essential to get a pass for the course;
▪ Basic knowledge of economic ideas and/or trends is recommended;
▪ Aimed at Bachelor/ Master/ PhD students in Economics/ Business/ Political Sciences/ International Relations/ Geography/ History. Professionals with various backgrounds benefitted as well from taking previous editions of the course. If in doubt, please contact Leonhardt for personal course selection advice.
▪ Iranzo, S. (2008) Delving into Country Risk. Banco de España, Occasional Paper No. 0802
▪ Van Efferink, L., Kool, C. and Van Veen, T. (2003) Country Risk Analysis. NIBE-SVV. Freely available as e-book at http://www.geomeans.com/getting-started-with-country-risk-analysis-5-free-e-book-about-theory-models-and-ratings/
You are further recommended to read some of these posts on Leonhardt’s website: http://www.geomeans.com/category/country-risk/getting-started-with-country-risk-analysis/ Please note that it is not required to do some reading before the course. If you like to read something, select a book that is closest to your research interests or ask Leonhardt for personal reading advice. For more suggested reading materials, check the following reading lists: http://www.geomeans.com/category/country-risk/reading-lists-country-risk/
▪ Lectures ▪ Presentations ▪ Work in subgroups
▪ Attendance ▪ Participation ▪ Presentation
▪ Analytical Skills ▪ Employability ▪ Country Risk Concepts ▪ Country Risk Research Framework ▪ Macro-Economic Risk Indicators ▪ Growth Potential ▪ Economic Policy ▪ External Finances ▪ Emerging Markets