Country Risk Analysis: Growth Potential, Economic Policy and External Finances of Emerging Markets [Summer School]


Period: 16 – 20 July 2018; Fee: €600; ECTS credits: 2; Program: available by the end of June; Language: English; Application process: Maastricht University; Application deadline: 25 June 2018; Accomodation: Maastricht Housing; Funding: Not available

Country Risk Analysis: Growth Potential, Economic Policy and External Finances of Emerging MarketsDescription
The Asian Crisis in 1997-1998, Argentina’s default in 2001 and the recent economic downturns in Brazil, Russia and South Africa underline the relevance of country risk analysis for companies, policymakers and NGOs. This course teaches you the skills to study country risks in Emerging Markets from an economic perspective.

What kind of research framework do banks use to assess country risk, and which concepts are pivotal in this regard? What are important economic risk drivers, and what are their critical values? And how can these economic risk drivers affect country risk? To answer these questions, you do an assignment in which you collect open source data required for a thorough economic risk analysis of a particular country. In the next assignment, you write the economic risk section of a country risk report about this country. To prepare for this section, you learn how to use a tool to visualize the direct and indirect effects of a change in economic risk drivers. In the final assignment, you compare the economic risks in your country with those in countries of your team mates. You present all your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments.
Related Summer School courses from Leonhardt are Political Risk Analysis: Domestic Factors, International Relations and Economic Impact Assessment, Geopolitical Scenario Planning: National Security, Geo-Economics and Foreign Policy Strategy and Geopolitical Framing Analysis: National Images, World Views and Global Dividing Lines.
▪ Designing an analytical framework to study the country risks in Emerging Markets;
▪ Comparing the macro-economic risks and the underlying drivers of different countries;
▪ Assessing the impact of changes in other economies and the world economy on one particular country;
▪ Developing your critical thinking skills by productively combining knowledge, assumptions and questions;
▪ Boosting your employability by acquiring valuable skills required for positions in business, government and academia.
Course Leader
Leonhardt van Efferink first worked as country risk analyst for 12 years. From 2010 until 2017, he did a PhD that straddles the boundary between geopolitics and media studies (PhD defence in December 2017, final version of thesis due in 2018). Students of his 2017 Summer Schools gave him an average of 9.5/10 for his teaching skills. Former Summer School student Roman from Switzerland recommends Leonhardt because “through his ability to interact with all the people with all their different backgrounds, he managed to meet the needs of each participant in a very unique way. The course turned out to be a highly interactive class combined with the professional inputs from Mr. van Efferink. His enthusiasm and knowledge in the area of Country Risk was contagious and opened completely different perspectives to all of us. Personally, I learned a lot about country risk and the different drivers during the course.”
▪ Strong motivation and good command of English are essential to get a pass for the course;
▪ Basic knowledge of economic ideas and/or trends is recommended;
▪ Aimed at Bachelor/ Master/ PhD students in Economics/ Business/ Political Sciences/ International Relations/ Geography/ History. Professionals with various backgrounds benefitted as well from taking previous editions of the course. If in doubt, please contact Leonhardt for personal course selection advice.
Recommended literature
Country Risk Analysis 2: Macro-Economic Risk Indicators, Causal Chain Tool and Recession Scenarios for China▪ Iranzo, S. (2008) Delving into Country Risk. Banco de España, Occasional Paper No. 0802
▪ Van Efferink, L., Kool, C. and Van Veen, T. (2003) Country Risk Analysis. NIBE-SVV. Available on this website: Free E-Book about Country Risk Analysis
You are further recommended to read some of these posts on Leonhardt’s website: Please note that it is not required to do some reading before the course. If you like to read something, select a book that is closest to your research interests or ask Leonhardt for personal reading advice. For more suggested reading materials, check the following reading lists:
Teaching methods
▪ Lectures ▪ Presentations ▪ Work in subgroups
Assessment methods
▪ Attendance ▪ Participation ▪ Presentation
▪ Analytical Skills ▪ Employability ▪ Country Risk Concepts ▪ Country Risk Research Framework ▪ Macro-Economic Risk Indicators ▪ Growth Potential ▪ Economic Policy ▪ External Finances ▪ Emerging Markets


  1. Dear Mr. Leonhardt van Efferink,

    I am willing in take part of the summer school 2018. With particular interest both Country Risk Analysis and Political Risk Analysis. My background is in Law and politics however with a great interests in international political economy.

    On the other hand, I would like to asking something! During my search on your website, I found the following sentence: “All courses cost €600, and there is no funding available”. To my understand all courses and not the fees of each course? Would you be willing to clarify the true underline meaning of above sentence?

    Please, provide me with great detail regarding the starting of these two courses and the amount to be paid.

    P.s. The ECTS credits to be obtain on each courses can be used as credits for a Master Degree on Economics of Strategy in Emerging Markets at Maastricht University on the field of ?

    Kind regards,

    César Panzo

    • Leonhardt van Efferink

      Dear Cesar,
      Thanks for your question. Each course cost 600 euro. With ‘no funding’, I mean that the university does not offer financial support to Summer School students. Do you have more questions?
      Kind regards,

  2. Dear Leonhardt,
    I enrolled in the course
    is the program available yet?
    what are the hours approximately?
    I will have a meeting on one of the course days (17.07), which means I will only be able to participate for half the day, that day – will this be a problem?

    Best regards
    Klaus Friedrich, UvT

    • Leonhardt van Efferink

      Thanks for your message, Klaus. The program will normally be made available by the end of June, depending on the number of applicants. If you miss some hours of class, you may get an extra assignment to compensate for these missed hours. Does this help? Kind regards, Leonhardt

      • Thank you very much for your reply.
        I’m fine with an extra assignment; other than that, if the missing of a half-day constitutes a problem, I would need to know as soon as possible, as my possibilities to re-schedule my meeting on the 17.07 are limited….

        thank you for your effort

        • Leonhardt van Efferink

          Hi Klaus,
          The Summer School will be over before you know and the class discussions are usually very inspiring. So I would encourage you to spend as much time as possible with the group in class. However, if illness, exams or appointments prevent students from taking all classes, an extra assignment is required.
          Kind regards,

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